Opinions: Bad day to be a Democrat

 by T.J. Shope
 published on Monday, March 24, 2008

If recent polling data is any indication, Democrats may not have the smooth-sailing general election that many had previously anticipated. While this is in large part because of the fact that Republicans nominated our own maverick Arizona Sen. John McCain, it can also more accurately be attributed to what National Public Radio's Juan Williams called a bloodbath for the Democratic nomination — a bloodbath that Williams said would most likely continue through to the Democratic convention in Denver.

Over the last week, we have seen a surge in Sen. Hillary Clinton's poll numbers as Sen. Obama has had to deflect criticism for his continuing to attend the United Church of Christ in Chicago, formerly led by the now-infamous Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.

In Pennsylvania, for example, Clinton now leads Obama by 16.6 percentage points according to the latest Real Clear Politics, an average of polls in that state. In fact, the most recent poll taken in that state by Public Policy Polling shows Clinton with a 26-point lead.

This continuous battle between Obama and Clinton only serves as good news for Sen. McCain. According to Rasmussen polls, he has been able to establish leads for the first time in head-to-head national matchups against Clinton, by 6 points, and against Obama, by 8 points.

While national polls are one thing, state polls are another. In the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio, Sen. McCain is ahead with the exception of Clinton's being ahead of McCain in Ohio by a couple of points. What's most surprising is what Pennsylvania's Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell pointed out on the "Fox News Sunday" morning program — McCain is even with Obama in states like New York and New Jersey while Clinton beats McCain pretty handily in both of those states.

What do all of these polls tell us? In all honesty, they tells us very little at this point as far as pure numbers go and how to make accurate predictions about an election that will take place several months from now. What it does tell us is who has momentum at this point in the process. It also tells us that at this point, early predictions of a Democratic sweep in November have changed because Republicans nominated Sen. McCain, and the drawn-out battle that is, from an outsider's perspective, tearing the Democratic Party apart.

How this will play out in November is anybody's guess. What should be a major cause of concern for Democrats is the amount of defections that are possible after the nomination process. Recent polling shows that close to 20 percent of Democrats in the battleground state of Pennsylvania will vote for Sen. McCain if their favorite candidate doesn't get out of the primary. This would be more concerning to me than the surge in McCain's support in the battleground states as this may be the cause of that surge.

That kind of data should give the Democrats some pause and rethink the bloodbath that they are incurring on themselves. I, on the other hand, will sit back with a bag of popcorn and enjoy the battle that is pitting Democrat on Democrat in this primary because my candidate has already been chosen, and I feel pretty good knowing that he was the only Republican candidate that the Democrats weren't looking forward to going up against in November.

T.J. Shope is hoping for a full student section at ASU men's basketball's final home game in the NIT against Florida on Tuesday night at 6 p.m. He can be reached at: thomas.shope@asu.edu.